Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Aug 2009
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for
isolated active periods on day one (06 August) due to effects of a
recurring coronal hole. Quiet conditions are expected on days two
and three (07 – 08 August).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 066
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01