Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities at ACE ranged from 361-438 km/s, while the IMF Bz ranged between -3 nT and +7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Mar 068
• Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/15
• Minor storm 05/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01