Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. Ephemeral Region 1011 (S12W25) emerged early in the period and was spotless by day’s end. It sported a few penumbraless spots at its peak and old Cycle 23 magnetic polarity. Little else of significance occurred or was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to stay very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream brought short-lived active conditions to all latitudes early in the day. The disturbance quickly waned, and quiet conditions prevailed by the end of the interval.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jan 071
• Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01