Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days of the forecast period (31 December – 02 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that will rotate into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Dec 069
• Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 001/000
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/008-008/010-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/15/25
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes A

• ctive 20/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01