Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for 20 – 21 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 22 December. The increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Dec 068
• Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01