Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (02 – 03 December). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (04 December) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the field.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Dec 068
• Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 000/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/25
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05