Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (24 November), On days two and three (25-26 November), the geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active, with a slight chance of isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes, under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Nov ???
• Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/005-008/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/15/20
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/20/25
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01