Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on the first two days of the forecast perioed (23-24 November), becoming unsettled on day three (25 November) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Nov 069
• Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/20
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01