Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels through the forecast period (23 to 25 August). On day two (24 August) isolated unsettled periods are possible due to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Aug 068
• Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/15/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01