Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jul 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jul 2008
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1000 (S12W05) remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled all three days of the forecast period (21 – 23 July) with isolated active periods possible on day three. The forecasted increase in activity is a result of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 20 Jul 066
- Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 001/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 008/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/45
- Minor storm 05/05/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/50
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05