Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from 670 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Jul 066
- Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 009/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/008-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/10
- Minor storm 01/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/20/15
- Minor storm 01/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01