Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The active region around the east limb has continued to produce low-level flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a chance for B-class flares and a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from the approaching new region behind the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at quiet conditions for the next three day period (14-16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 May 068
- Predicted 14 May-16 May 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 13 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 004/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01