Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 May 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred and the visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods observed between 06/0000-0900Z. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, decreased to about 550 km/s beginning at about 06/0800Z from an earlier high of approximately 650 km/s at 05/2300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on day 1 (07 May) due to the high speed stream. By days 2 and 3 (08 and 09 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 May 067
- Predicted 07 May-09 May 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 06 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 008/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 008/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
- A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/10/10
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
