Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions due to the continued effects of the high speed stream. Solar wind measurements from the ACE satellite ranged from 546 km/sec to 677 km/sec, and Bz varied from -4.9 nT to 5.1 nT throughout the period. The 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic filed is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (08-10 April). Isolated minor storm conditions are possible at high latitudes due the continued effects of the coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Apr 069
• Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 006/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 010/010-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05