Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 986 (S04W71) has decayed to a single alpha spot. A slow-moving coronal mass ejection was observed off the west limb at 17/0830Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period (18 – 20 March). The CME observed today is not expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Mar 070
• Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01