Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 March) in response to a slackening of the solar wind indicated by the STEREO Behind spacecraft. Quiet to unsettled levels return on days 2 and 3 (16-17 March) as the solar wind speeds approach 600 km/s.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Mar 070
• Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 011/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/30
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/40/40
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05