Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W96) produced a B5/Sf flare at 11/0550Z. Region 985 has since rotated off the west limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind at the ACE spacecraft was elevated to approximately 640 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes on day one (12 March). The elevated activity is due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Days two and three (13-14 March) are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Mar 070
• Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 10/20/10
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05