Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind observations are consistent with signatures of a coronal hole high-speed stream. The velocity, magnetic field and temperature all showed an increase at about 28/1330Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with periods of active conditions for 29 February, and at unsettled levels for 01 March due to the influence of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to be predominately quiet on 02 March as the stream subsides somewhat.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Feb 070
• Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 012/012-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01