Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated signatures consistent with a co-rotating interaction region around 27/1400Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes for 28-29 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Predominately unsettled conditions are expected for 01 March.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Feb 071
• Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 015/015-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05