Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of 655 km/s at approximately 19/0159Z, and Bz ranged between +/- 5nT. Wind speed ended the summary period at around 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on days one and two (20 – 21 February). On day three (22 February) activity levels should decrease to predominately quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Feb 072
• Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 009/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/008-008/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01