Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Feb 071
• Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01