Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jul 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind at ACE started the period at 03/2100 UTC with 438 km/s, increased to a peak of 652 km/s at 04/0931 UTC, and has steadily declined to around 480 km/s at forecast issue time. The IMF Bz also experienced minor fluctuations throughout the period from +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 05 July. Quiet conditions are expected for 06-07 July.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Jul 072
- Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 075/075/070
- 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01