Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jun 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 June. Conditions will range from unsettled to minor storm levels on 19-20 June as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. There is a chance for isolated major storm periods at high latitudes on 20 June due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Jun 067
- Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 004/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 005/005-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/30
- Minor storm 10/15/20
- Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/35
- Minor storm 15/20/25
- Major-severe storm 05/10/15