Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W59) produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B8/Sf at 10/0027Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 12-13 June. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, on 14 June as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Jun 073
• Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 005/005-005/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10