Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 June 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. New Region 960 (S06E73) was responsible for two M-class flares during the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 01/0651Z and an M2/Sf event occurred at 01/1459Z. A Tenflare of 100 sfu was associated with the M2 event. This region remains too close to the east solar limb to ascertain a complete magnetic analysis. Region 958 (S13E22) developed several sunspots during the period and is now classified a Bxo beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 959 (S12E49) contains two small umbra and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 960 is likely to produce further M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 June. Active conditions are expected on 03 and 04 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/10/10
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jun 079
- Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 003/005-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/25
- Minor storm 01/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/30/30
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10