Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S10W57) produced a C4.2/1f flare at 05/1247Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 08 May.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 May 081
- Predicted 06 May-08 May 080/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 05 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 001/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01