Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (4-5 March). A small increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 6 March in response to recurrent effects that are associated with a small, low-latitude coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Mar 073
• Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 073/073/073
• 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 005/005-005/007-007/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05