Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed over the past 24 hours. Region 944 (S07E49) is the only spotted region on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (25-27 February). Isolated minor to major storm periods are possible on 25-26 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Feb 076
• Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 077/078/079
• 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 015/020-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/25
• Minor storm 25/20/15
• Major-severe storm 15/10/05