Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 944 (S10E75) rotated on the visible disk today and is currently classified as an alpha magnetic sunspot group. Region 942 (S10W07) remained quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through 24 February. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on 25 February due to a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated major storm periods are possible at high latitudes as the coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Feb 076
• Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 078/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/005-005/005-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 05/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/40
• Minor storm 10/10/30
• Major-severe storm 01/01/15