Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 942 (S11E15) and 943 (S12W10) are the two numbered regions on the visible disk. Both retain a beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Feb 075
• Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05