Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (4-6 February)

III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Feb 087
• Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 088/088/088
• 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01