Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W69) continued to produce small flares and has shown some simplification since yesterday. A long duration B9 flare occurred at 24/1452 UTC from beyond the east limb, near SE07. The flare was associated with a CME visible in the NASA LASCO data. The source of this activity is presumed to be the returning area of old Region 933 (S06, L=034). Sunspots are not yet visible at the limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to increase over the next few days as the new region rotates onto the visible disk, C-class flares are expected and M-class flares may occur, depending on the complexity of the area.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
- Class M 10/15/20
- Class X 01/05/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Jan 080
- Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 080/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
