Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W43) continued to grow and produced a few small B-class flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class flares are possible in Region 939.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Jan 079
• Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05