Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated around 680 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 18 January. On 19 January, mostly unsettled conditions are expected. By 20 January, conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jan 078
• Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 080/080/075
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 009/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 018/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 012/015-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05