Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 921 (S06E58) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 600 km/s to 490 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Oct 076
• Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 013/021
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/005-002/005-002/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01