Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 920 (S07W82) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 310 km/s to 540 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes on 29 October due to the continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 and 31 October.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Oct 075
• Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/010-004/005-002/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01