Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Oct 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New region 918 (S04W72) was numbered today. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the East limb, apparently originating from the backside. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Its current speed is approximately 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 23 Oct 076
- Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05