Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no sunspots on the visible disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind slowly declined to near 370 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 18 and 19 October. Active and minor storm periods are expected on 20 October as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Oct 070
- Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/40
- Minor storm 01/01/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/20/50
- Minor storm 01/05/30
- Major-severe st