Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E10) produced several B-class flares this period. New opposite polarity spots have emerged to the southeast and southwest of the single trailer sunspot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position and produce occasional active to minor storm periods on 23 and 24 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 25 September.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Sep 072
• Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/020-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/40/25
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01