Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 908 (S12W18) produced a C1.0/Sf flare at 11/2309Z. Region 909 (S09W60) produced two low-level B-class flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (13-15 Sep).

III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Sep 084
• Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01