Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S11W30) produced a long duration B6 event at 10/0723 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12-13 September due to possible effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected for 14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Sep 087
• Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01