Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Regions 907 (S13E44) and 908 (S13E71) were numbered today. New Region 908 is likely the return of old Region 904 (S14,L=121).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is still elevated at approximately 500 km/s but has been in decline this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Sep 080
• Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 015/023
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 006/010-004/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01