Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A long duration B-class flare was observed at 22/1324Z from Region 904 on the west limb. A faint and slow moving CME was first observed on the east limb by LASCO at 22/0636Z. As there were no front-sided events near in time to the CME, it is likely backsided and not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Elevated solar wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal hole combined with an extended period of southward Bz produced active conditions during most of the day at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (23 – 24 August). Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 25 August.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Aug 081
• Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 017/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-008/012-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01