Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 900 (S05E30) has grown slightly since yesterday, but has remained unchanged in magnetic complexity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 900.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours (16 July). Quiet conditions are expected for 17-18 July.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Jul 070
• Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 003/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01