Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jul 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S07W01) continues to produce occasional minor B-class flare activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from Region 898.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position in the next 24 hours. Expect occasional active to minor storm periods on 04 and 05 July. Unsettled to active periods are likely on 06 July.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Jul 086
• Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 015/020-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/30
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/50/40
• Minor storm 25/25/15
• Major-severe storm 15/15/05