Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk continues to remain spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 24/1200 to 24/1500 UTC at several observatories. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible on 25 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 and 27 February.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Feb 076
• Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 075/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 008/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/012-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/20
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01