Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 848 (S20W78).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jan 084
• Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 085/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 015/029
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 008/011
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/008-005/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01