Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 848 (S19W41) produced multiple B and C-class flares today, the largest was a C3 x-ray flare occurring at 24/2217Z. This regions sunspot area increased during the period and magnetic analysis continues to show weak gamma characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream, which has been waning over the later part of the period. Wind speed was nearing 400 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Jan 093
- Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 013/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01