Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Nov 07 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares from Region 820 (S16W54).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 November. Mostly unsettled conditions are possible on 10 November.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Nov 079
• Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01