Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Sep 17 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W50) produced an M9/2n flare at 0605 UTC. The event included a radio burst of 1,000 sfu at 2695 MHz (tenflare) plus additional bursts across the spectrum. The event apparently did not include a CME. The region, though still potent, has declined in white light and simplified slightly in its magnetic structure. Newly assigned Region 810 (N10E78) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808, though decaying, is still capable of energetic activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was at very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
- Class M 70/70/70
- Class X 30/30/30
- Proton 30/30/30
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Sep 104
- Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 100/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 011/018
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
